yesterday

ok, for my style/system I would have to say yesterday was the first time I identified an actual type of day.

open: open - test - reverse
somethings to further add. How big was the IB/opening range compared to recent?

TICK - strong, extremely bullish through the day
high/low - violations of the high resulted in range extension, then reverse, resistance became support...auctioning to higher and higher balance areas.

best location - going long at the bottom of the previous balance area. Strangly enough I had a great day with counter trend trades, although the danger with this for the future is if the analysis was off and we go into a strong trend day, risk/reward would vanish doing that.

random thoughts on TICK-
Wonder if a running total of the average of TICK bars would do the trick? The biggest thing we know about tick is that it will rotate. something like the TPO count might be cool.

need for cumulative tick

today was a great example of why I need cumulative TICK.

Such a bulk of readings + 0, clearly not going to be a balancing day with so much buying lifted on the ask. The problem with regular old TICK is this information is hard to spot/digest while in the heat of battle.

good algorithm from the ninja board from dr brett:

1. Indicator is on the 1 minute $Tick index.2. Calculate the average of (High, Low and Close)/3 for each bar3. Calculate the average of the previous 2030 bars of the above before current day (this is 5 days (5 x 406 bars)(Brett uses 20 days instead).4. Take the close of current 1 minute Tick bar and minus the value calculated in 3.5. Add the the current value in 4 to the last value calculated, making it cumulative. Start the day at zero, although maybe that isn't important.

The thing is i'm not so sure that is really what I am after. The average of the bar is an interesting concept though. I may try something like a moving average that would plot bar[0] + ((H + L + C) / 3). Basically, start at 0 at 9:30 and sum the average of each 1 minute bar through the day, plot it. That way the skew of the ticks could be quantified, possibly even trying to get fills on divergences.

profitable but dumb trading

 -6, -5 then plus +22.  I have to think about trading in a trending market now even though I despise trending markets. The tape is starting to whisper at least and I guess I had to take a trade from a risk/reward perspective on the test of those lows on YM with such a nice balance area above the short.
I think I've finally flipped in my thinking that this is not a balancing market in a downtrend but its a bear. Step very very very carefully.

yawn

No trading for me after a big trend day like last night. My levels right now are at about a 100 points so things are far too risky. Maybe if the market establishes a smaller range.
work for this morning - investigate TICK

stick to the plan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10:01Price is getting totally hammered. This is where delta bars would have kept me in this last trade longer for probly 30 extra points as i'm sure the bid is just getting crushed. would have paid for market delta right there. Just changed order flow, bouncing off yesterdays volume area low. Back up now to the valley.Have to stick to the plan, currently 25 point profit target for the day until I have more experience. 2/2, +34 on the day in the opening range. done for the day.Here is where I have to be aware of the pyschology of trading . I can feel how over confident I am right now. My premarket analysis worked to a tea but this is where I get sloppy and will give some back. Almost over whelming feelings of wanting more. greed and fear are the enemy.

Price moved to the top of the valley with a pretty flat TICK. Faded it, took about 2 points of heat on a small rise in the TICK...TICK stalled, buyers had nothing to move out of the range. Sellers came in and hammered price. Stuck to the plan and got a bit extra under the vwap because price moved so fast. +23

9:40
starting off in the valley. first trade+11, should have got in 4 points earlier. got out at the vwap. probly could have held a little longer but nice trade overall. TICK is extremely flat. Could be a very range bound day which would kick ass.

Interesting volume profile from yesterday. We finished with vwap pretty centered in the valley of the double distribution. Will be looking to see if price leaves this area or stays range bound. If we stay range bound we should probly fill in this area and create a more normal looking 2 days volume distribution.
Today I'm going to work on having no bias. While don't do anything to have a bias for the day analysis wise it is hard to not have any bias. I noticed a short bias in my thinking yesterday that really had no reason to be there. I think at some point I made need to start ignoring the trading communities i check online as I assume even the slightest bit of analysis by someone else has to give my brain some bias.
Should be alot of nice levels to trade off if we stay range bound. Might not trade at all if we start trending up as that area is a bit noisy with my current tools/understanding.

gave back 5

one last trade, gave back 5. good learning experience though. I really need to set profit targets and a time target. risked 5 to possibly make 20, ohh well.  Its pretty hard to keep the level of concentration i need for the whole session. Another thing is that on balance days with price just jumping between areas by 1pm or so my analysis on the day has become filled with noise. Have to go over these trades later tonight.
Damn...wish I had been keeping a journal awhile ago. this should be invaluable.

one more

asd

One more. Took a short in the opposite direction of the previous breakout. Bad fill, price stalled
half way through the move. out +5. +28 on the day, should have been 35. Good trading. Need to review how TICK was working
during my trades.

first real entry

Going to start doing this everyday. have note pad open and just jot down my thoughts as the day progresses.  should have been 3/3 but hit the wrong button and lost 7 points, dumb. Need to review what tick was doing during the breakout. overall very pleased with my patience and not getting faked out during the probes.

10am
im naked without market delta. +5 points,
could have easily seen the order flow
with delta bars, stayed in that trade and
paid for market delta in 2 minutes. got
the super dom working, pretty damn nice.
price stalls at wvap, no buyers on the
tape. looking for another test at 570 to
short or a test down o 440. too noisy
here to bother trading.
10:05
lift off vwap but no buyers on the tape.
battle still at the vwap.
10:10
this isnt so bad, going to watch this for
a month as an education in tape
reading.stand off still around the vwap,
price breaks out to the downside.bid gets
slammed. 480 balance area now, tape goes
to sleep.could probly takea long back to
the vwap but too much noise.
10:15
forgot about TICK. got TICK working in
ninja. for some reason won't back fill
the day. figure this out later.
10:23
back to vwap then quickly rejected. TICK
doing a whole lot of nothing. start
thinking about coding cumulative tick in
ninja.
10:28
market is balanced around vwap/pvp.start
looking for volatility breakout. too much
nose on the downside,will probly go long
with a break above 510. price having a
tough time around the wvap.
10:35- TICK is sleeping, almost perfect
symetry wvap/pvp,triangle setting up.
waiting for volatility breakout. might go
short under 475.
10:40
brilliant move,hit the wrong button,
bought instead of sold.
-7. good analysis though, no reason to be
taking these trades here. been seeing
small range extension like this the past
few days. probly at a dev band on vwap.
10:45, testing the low support area.TICK
is pretty flat.look for breakout.
11:00
Buyers at the low range, auctioned down
to another balance area.TICK is real
flat. Price lifting on strong TICK. might
look to fade.price looks like its trying
to drive back to the vwap.
11:10
Stalls at vwap. looking to short again as
before but hit the SELL button this
time.TICK is flat, took a good amount of
TICK to hit the vwap. offers being lifted
across the board but price is still stuck
at the vwap. long above 510 or shorting
at 470 area.
11:20
Price is battling out of the volume zone.
big test at 510. not sure what fire power
tick has left to push through that level.
this is what i've been waiting to see as
far as how price moves with this kind of
tick at a key level.price is failing,
poor risk reward to short though back to
vwap though.
11:25
Tick might be reloading for a test of
510. still looking to get long on a
breakout.Probe of 510 and failure.
Building a huge volume range between
480-510.TICK is flat.
11:33
Another test of 510 and failed. TICK gets
rocked. Not going to get faked out,
looking for a break about 515 now. Going
back to vwap.
11:36
Back to vwap at near perfect symmetry
with pvp. something has to happen here.
yawn.
11:43
probes and fakes in the other direction
at 480. Took all ticks fire power to
probe that area, back to vwap.
11:53
Finally got the breakout. +23
Pleased with the reading of the market.
Knew I had good location, market delta
would have made that trade much more
confident and possibly stayed in until
order flow changed. Pretty much closed
the tape. Would rather just read the DOM.
lunch time. might be done for the day.

Should have some nice levels/balance areas to trade against today. Sucks have to go back to Ninja after market delta. Ninja reminds me of dating a beautiful and intelligent woman. Shes great to just look at and has alot to say, alot going on behind the eyes. Good luck getting her to do what you want though. The volume profile on ninja is shit. I have no idea why they coded it to start over any time a new indicator is added. I soppose it has to do with keeping things tick precise but I'm worried if my chart stalls I'll be left in the dark for the day. lame

Well my month trial of marketdelta expired just now. I need to do some research and see if i can replicate the delta bar plots with something else. While it is expensive it is really nice having all those options and getting investors r/t vwap for nothing. I think i'm going to try a month subscription to ensign and see how things go. I'm not sure i need straight out market profile and ensign has great volume profiles. Really trading software is a pain in the ass. Neoticker would rule but its so fucking clunky. For some reason no one seems to want to have 2 charts in the same pain. I would love to watch the cash down and YM on the same chart. lame.

more 1-15

Well I guess this is why keeping a journal is a good idea. I noticed during the time in black box up top that price kept violating my volume profile levels but not breaking out. I was viewing this more as range extension which i soppose it was. Had the wvap minimized and just noticed that price was walking down the 2nd std dev band. Something for future refernce too is to keep an eye on the slope of the vwap. I had not seen such a down sloping vwap in retrospect before. Fantastic setups fading moves up to the std dev bands there.

1-15 analysis

This was what I was looking at before the market open. Crazy down day after we got away from the past few days balance area. Found some nice support near the over night lows before taking those out. No idea what is going on in the after market. We have finally cleared all the support areas and are in no mans land. Tomarrow will be a good education, have no seen this setup before.
Right now I'm working on integrating TICK into my trading. I'm completely comfortable with finding nice levels to trade using volume profiles. Hopefully my book on excel comes this week as I would really like to get into cummulative TICK.
Right now I've noticed that if it takes an extreme TICK reading to move price to a key s/r level it should setup a nice fade. If price breaks a key s/r level with TICK sitting around +/- 300 its a good time to be looking for a break out.

Inspired by Mark D. Cook

I found some interesting info on Mark Cook tonight. He won the 1992 US Trader Challenge. When he started though he lost money for 5 years before breaking even. He wrote this fantastic article on what it takes to make it:
"What Makes A Trader Successful?
By Mark D. Cook
Many people have asked me over the years what it takes to be a successful trader. The answer is not clear but here are a few thoughts to ponder and apply.
First, you must have a complete commitment to trading and do it full-time. If it is a hobby or a secondary pass-time, I know how the bottom line will be - a big minus. Trading must be addressed as a profession because if you do not treat it as such, let me assure you, those who do treat it this way will separate you from your money very quickly.
Secondly, you must fit your trading habits to your individual personality. If you are an impulsive individual, your style will reflect more trading than a calculating individual who waits for all the indicators to fall into place. The personality factor more than any other factor I know of, will determine success or failure. If you are an emotional person, admit that you are and structure your trading habits to make emotions a positive influence, not a negative one. If you are either greedy or fearful, that will affect your decision making on a position and without recognizing the governing emotion, your decisions will tend to be wrong. Whenever I am the most fearful of the market, that emotion helps make me decide to go long and buy. I know that my emotions tend to make me fearful most of the time. Whenever my fears become overwhelming, my discipline tells me to buy and discipline must win out or you are doomed to failure.
The work ethic can never be overstated. I watch the market all day long from the opening bell to the closing bell. I have kept diaries on every day in the market for the last seven years, sometimes having over 40 entries in my diary per day. If I do not do my work my profit suffers. There is no short cut in trading, the market will quickly find if you are lazy.
Planning is the objective part of trading. Start with the worst case scenario and work from there. You will never be more objective than before you execute a trade. Once you are in a trade, emotions take over so the plan must be in place before the activity takes place. Determine a plan that tells you when you are wrong and admit it. Get out, retreat, live to fight another day; these are cowardly approaches but it will keep you from the trader’s obituary. Incidentally, I have been diagnosed as terminal many times and believe each rehabilitation takes a long time, but death is final.
Turn you weaknesses into strength. Happy trading.
"

So its time to start a journal along the lines of Mark.